Reacción a "A new study concludes that climate change intensified the flooding caused by the dana in Valencia in 2024"

The study demonstrates a high level of methodological rigour, as it employs a physical attribution approach using the Pseudo-Global Warming method and kilometre-scale convective simulations with the WRF model, enabling an explicit analysis of the dynamical and microphysical processes involved in the intensification of extreme rainfall. In addition, it incorporates an ensemble of 15 CMIP6 models to estimate the climate signal and applies robust statistical testing, further strengthening the reliability of the findings. Its conclusions —a 21 % increase in six-hour accumulated rainfall and a 55 % expansion of the area affected by extreme precipitation under present-day conditions— are physically consistent with thermodynamic theory (the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship) and align with existing scientific evidence documenting the intensification of precipitation extremes in a warmer climate. Nevertheless, the study has important limitations: it examines a single event, keeps large-scale atmospheric circulation fixed (and therefore does not assess changes in the probability of occurrence), and adopts a conditional approach —comparing how the same episode would have unfolded under pre-industrial conditions, rather than quantifying future risk increases.

In terms of its implications, the work reinforces the idea that anthropogenic climate change not only increases total rainfall amounts, but also amplifies the physical mechanisms that make extreme convective events more intense and widespread. This has direct consequences for climate policy and, in particular, for spatial and urban planning: it challenges the assumption of climatic ‘stationarity’ in the design of hydraulic infrastructure, drainage systems and land-use planning frameworks. If sub-daily events may intensify by around 20 % per degree of warming, then IDF design curves and risk maps based solely on historical data are underestimating the real hazard and should be updated accordingly. Studies of this kind provide a robust scientific basis for revising technical standards and regulatory frameworks, strengthening building codes, protecting river corridors and flood-prone areas, incorporating nature-based solutions, and reinforcing adaptation strategies in response to a climate that is already showing clear signs of intensifying hydrometeorological extremes.