Pilar Brufau

Human-induced climate change amplified the intensity and extent of the rainfall that affected Valencia during the October 2024 dana, according to a new attribution study involving several Spanish research centres. Using climate simulations, the study, published in Nature Communications, shows that present-day global warming conditions increased precipitation intensity by 21 %, expanded the area receiving more than 180 millimetres of rain by 56 %, and raised the total rainfall volume in the Júcar River basin by 19 % compared to a pre-industrial scenario. The authors highlight “the urgent need for effective adaptation strategies and improved urban planning to reduce the growing risks associated with extreme hydrometeorological events in a rapidly warming world.”

A study by a team from the ClimaMeter project claims that the intensification of rainfall from the DANA that devastated Valencia and other regions on 29 October is mainly attributed to human-induced climate change. Natural climate variability, on the other hand, probably played a modest role. According to the analysis, this DANA was driven by very exceptional weather conditions. The work also shows that the DANA-like depressions that cause flooding in the southeastern peninsular are up to 15 % wetter than they were in the past. In addition, temperatures are up to 3°C warmer, which favours storm formation in these events over the Mediterranean basin. 

Las lluvias torrenciales caídas en Libia hace dos semanas fueron 50 veces más probables por el calentamiento global provocado por la acción humana. Algo similar ocurría con las lluvias caídas en Grecia, Bulgaria y Turquía, que fueron 10 veces más probables por el cambio climático, según concluye un estudio de atribución rápido de la Word Weather Attribution (WWA). La investigación apunta a que la tragedia en Libia se agravó por otros factores humanos, como construcciones en llanuras inundables y presas en mal estado. Los autores también analizaron las inundaciones registradas en España a principios de septiembre y concluyeron que precipitaciones tan intensas se esperan una vez cada 40 años. 

This summer's monsoon rains in Pakistan are ten times heavier than usual and have already affected more than 33 million people. Some six and a half million are in need of humanitarian assistance, including more than 400,000 refugees. Pakistan's prime minister has called them "the worst in the country's history".