Ana Cristina Franco Novela

The Global Carbon Budget's projections for 2025 estimate that carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels will reach a new all-time high of 38.1 billion tons, an increase of 1.1% over 2024. This global report—now in its 20th edition and to be presented at COP30 in Belém, Brazil—estimates that emissions in the United States and the European Union will grow this year, in contrast to the decline in previous years, partly due to weather conditions and higher energy consumption. The study is published in the journal Earth System Science Data in preprint format.

At the current rate of carbon dioxide emissions, the 1.5°C temperature increase limit set in the Paris Agreement will be exceeded in four years. This is one of the predictions of the Global Carbon Budget 2025, the global report on the carbon balance, now in its 20th edition, which will be presented at COP30 in Belém (Brazil). Pep Canadell, one of its authors, analyzed its findings at a briefing organized by SMC Spain.

The largest carbon balance report shows that carbon dioxide emissions have not yet peaked and are projected to reach 37.4 billion tonnes by 2024. In a briefing organised by SMC Spain, Pep Canadell, one of the people in charge of the Global Carbon Budget 2024, analysed these data and what Donald Trump's return as US president means for climate action in the framework of COP29 in Baku.

There are still no clear signs that global fossil carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have peaked, according to the 2024 Global Carbon Budget. The report - which is published in the journal Earth System Science Data in preprint format and will be launched at COP29 in Baku - estimates that these emissions will grow by 0.8% this year compared to 2023, to 37.4 billion tonnes of CO₂. If this rate continues, there is a 50% chance that global warming will exceed the 1.5°C limit in six years.