Mikel González
This article, published in the journal Science, demonstrates that the early replacement of fossil-fuel vehicles with electric vehicles is highly beneficial in terms of emissions in almost all cases and contexts. Regardless of the remaining useful life of the fossil-fuel vehicle, the electricity mix, the efficiency of fossil-fuel and electric vehicles, and the emissions from the manufacture of the vehicles and batteries, emissions over the entire life cycle are significantly reduced. In the extreme case where the fossil-fuel vehicle were taken off the road in its second year, emissions over the entire life cycle would be reduced by 44 per cent.
The article has interesting public policy implications, as it shows that it makes sense to continue supporting, through subsidies, the replacement of fossil-fuel vehicles with electric vehicles if the aim is to accelerate decarbonisation; however, this does not apply to the replacement of old combustion-engine vehicles with new ones, a point also highlighted in the article.