The wealthiest regions in Europe face a higher risk of death from high temperatures, but not from cold weather

European regions with the greatest economic inequalities face a higher risk of mortality from both cold and heat, while wealthier regions face a higher risk during heat waves and a lower risk from cold. These findings come from a study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) and published in Nature Health. According to the authors, the greater vulnerability to heat in regions with higher GDP could be due to a greater presence of heat islands and urbanization in those areas, while the lower risk from cold could be explained by better-insulated homes and lower energy poverty. The results are based on an analysis of a mortality database covering the years 2000 to 2019 and including the urban and rural populations of 32 European countries.

 

08/05/2026 - 11:00 CEST
Expert reactions

Usama Bilal - temperaturas eu

Usama Bilal

Associate professor in the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and co-director of the Urban Health Collaborative and the Center for Climate Change and Urban Health Research at Drexel University's Dornsife School of Public Health

Science Media Centre Spain

This study is of high quality and employs robust methodologies that have become standard in research on how suboptimal temperatures affect mortality. The main limitations I see relate to the level of measurement of social variables and the fact that in Europe (and in many other places) there is a correlation between warmer climates and poverty (with the exception of Eastern Europe), which can make it difficult to separate poverty from other broader climatic factors.

The implications are very clear: this study confirms other research with a weaker empirical basis or a much narrower scope than this study, which suggests that the impacts of climate on health (and, consequently, on future risks associated with climate change) are not distributed equally and follow the same social patterns we have observed with other diseases. What is important for future studies is to better understand which specific, modifiable factors underlie these findings and could lead to public policies on climate adaptation that take these inequalities into account. For example, energy poverty, especially in winter, may be behind some of these findings.

The author has not responded to our request to declare conflicts of interest
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Nature Health
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Blanca Paniello-Castillo et al.

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