Óscar Zurriaga
Research Fellow Emeritus at the FISABIO Foundation (Valencia), retired senior lecturer in the Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health at the University of Valencia, and a member of the Spanish Society of Epidemiology
The article carries out an analysis estimating heat-attributable mortality for the months of May to August 2026. It uses estimation methods based on recent literature and previously validated techniques. Estimates are always likely to vary depending on the methods used and, above all, on the underlying data. For this reason, they should never be taken as absolute and immutable figures. Nevertheless, I believe the trend shown in this study can be considered reliable and well-established. This study has only considered 854 cities in Europe, covering 40 per cent of the population across 30 countries; consequently, we have no information on the remaining 60 per cent of the population in those countries, who live in non-urban areas.
What the authors demonstrate – whilst noting that their estimate is conservative – is that this summer has, so far, been the worst experienced by European cities to date, and that the number of additional heat-related deaths has been higher than in other summers previously considered the worst (2003 and 2022). The authors attribute this to the successive heatwaves that have occurred this season.
A notable aspect of this study is that, in many countries, the most extreme episode occurred in June. The authors attribute this to the fact that, at this early stage of the season, the population may be less acclimatised to extreme heat. They mention two further factors to consider in explaining this effect: extremely high humidity and unusually high night-time temperatures.
In short, this study once again highlights the impact of extreme temperatures on mortality across Europe and should spur the institutions responsible for safeguarding public health and combating emissions causing global warming into action. Some of the findings mentioned in this study, such as the possible effects at times almost outside the summer season (the population’s acclimatisation, excessive humidity and nights with high temperatures), should also be taken into account in public advice and measures, as well as in the adaptation of homes and climate-resilient shelters.