Autor/es reacciones
Carlos García-Soto
Researcher at the CSIC (IEO), responsible for the Ocean-Climate System Assessment Unit and collaborator in international United Nations processes on climate change and oceans, including the Climate Change COPs
The study is an interesting scientific contribution because it explores a physical possibility through climate simulation. However, its results should be interpreted with caution. One of the main strengths of the work is precisely that the authors themselves clearly define the scope of their results. They present it as a proof of concept based on a single climate model (CESM2), acknowledge the model's known biases, the need to replicate the experiments with other models, the existence of potential unintended consequences, the uncertainties associated with long-term effects, and the fact that the results depend on the type of El Niño event. In other words, the study demonstrates that this hypothesis deserves investigation, but not that the climate system can be deliberately modified with a level of certainty sufficient to propose a real-world application.
Deliberately modifying a climate system as complex as El Niño requires a level of evidence far exceeding that needed to demonstrate that a hypothesis is physically plausible. Climate models are extraordinary tools for exploring scenarios and understanding mechanisms, but they represent our current understanding of the climate system, not the climate system in all its complexity. The study itself identifies potential unintended consequences, such as remote climate alterations or a subsequent intensification of La Niña, which precisely illustrate the difficulty of intervening in a highly interconnected system. Therefore, these results should be understood as a contribution to the scientific debate on geoengineering, not as proof that such interventions can be safely implemented or as an alternative to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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