Antonio García
Senior Lecturer at the Polytechnic University of Valencia and researcher at the CMT – Clean Mobility & Thermofluids University Research Institute
My initial impression is that this is a methodologically sound and well-executed study designed to answer the question posed, but I believe its conclusions should be interpreted with caution. The analysis focuses exclusively on minimising future CO₂ emissions and treats the manufacturing emissions of the combustion-engine vehicle as a ‘sunk cost’, which is correct from the perspective of decision theory.
However, it overlooks aspects that are relevant from the perspective of the circular economy, such as the continued use of a fully functional vehicle, the consumption of material resources, or the embodied energy in its manufacture. Furthermore, its conclusions rely on a very strong assumption: that the combustion-engine vehicle is permanently withdrawn from the vehicle fleet and is no longer used on the second-hand market. I believe these limitations should be borne in mind when communicating the findings to the general public.