Javier Martín-Vide

The latest forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest that there is a likelihood that the phenomenon known as El Niño will return this year and that it will do so with greater intensity. In Europe, for June through August, the forecast indicates a slight tendency toward below-average precipitation in the northeast of the continent. As for the Iberian Peninsula, temperatures are expected to exceed the top quintile of the seasonal average. Although it is not yet certain that this will occur, forecasts for the coming months will either confirm or rule it out.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has declared the onset of El Niño conditions on Tuesday. "The declaration of El Niño by the WMO is the signal for governments around the world to mobilise preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our ecosystems and our economies," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. According to the WMO statement, El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years, setting the stage for a likely rise in global temperatures and altered weather and climate patterns.

After three years in which the planet's climate has experienced a phenomenon known as La Niña, in 2023 it gives way to its opposite, El Niño. This has led the World Meteorological Organization to warn that this event, added to climate change, could cause the 1.5 °C limit to be exceeded in the next five years. But what are these "children", how do they affect Spain, how long will they last?