Autor/es reacciones

Luis Carcavilla Urquí

Senior Scientist at the Geological and Mining Institute of Spain (IGME, CSIC)

This study, carried out in record time by a team of 24 researchers from 14 institutions across nine different countries, analyses the role that climate change played in triggering the tragedy that occurred on the border between Nepal and China on 26 August. The authors, who are affiliated with global research centres and NGOs dedicated to international scientific research and advisory work, analyse the impacts, triggers, mechanisms and characteristics of the event, as well as the vulnerability and exposure of the area. The multidisciplinary nature of the team is essential for analysing the range of factors that played a part in this event and the multiple sources of information.

Studying a catastrophic event of this nature is complex, as it was not caused by a single extreme weather event, but rather represents a multifaceted phenomenon resulting from a chain of processes triggered or, at the very least, exacerbated by various causes. Analysis of the triggering factors shows that the effects of climate change played a decisive role in destabilising systems and variables that were key to the unfolding of the disaster. It is precisely the study of how these factors evolve in the context of global warming that holds the key to understanding the magnitude of this event.

In future, it is essential to continue studying how the determining factors—both known and potential—of multiple events such as this evolve over time within the context of global change, in order to prevent future tragedies. In any case, events such as this, which are influenced by various variables and trigger a chain of processes, are difficult to predict.

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