Coordinating with the celebration of the Dubai Climate Summit, the team at Global Carbon Project has released its latest report on global carbon emissions, the Global Carbon Budget 2023. All sources of fossil fuels have seen increased emissions, especially coal and oil, although natural gas and cement have also contributed.
“In the past two years, we have exceeded the peak of coal emissions recorded nine years ago in 2014, and now we are at a new level,” warned Pep Canadell, Executive Director of the Global Carbon Project and Chief Research Scientist at the Climate Science Center CSIRO in Canberra (Australia), in a briefing organized by SMC Spain.
The report — in its 18th edition, involving more than 120 scientists from 90 research centers and universities worldwide — has used millions of real data until the end of October 2023 and makes a small projection until the end of this year. According to estimates, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels have again increased, reaching 36.8 billion tons of CO2, a record figure. It is 1.4% above the pre-covid-19 pandemic levels that began in 2019.
How long until we surpass the 1.5°C global warming, one of the goals set in the Paris Agreement? With the current level of emissions, the report's team estimates a 50% chance of global warming exceeding this threshold in about seven years. “Can we stop at 1.5°C? The answer is a resounding no,” emphasized Canadell. “And it's not my opinion. It is an impossibility that the world can stop adding emissions in seven years,” he explained; adding that the world's energy system is so massive that it will take many decades to decarbonize and be replaced by other types of energy.
Forecasts in Spain: possible decrease in 2023
If we analyze the situation by regions, it is very unequal: emissions are expected to increase in India (8.2%) and China (4%) in 2023, and decrease in the European Union (-7.4%), the U.S. (-3%), and the rest of the world (-0.4%).
Overall, 26 countries have managed to reduce their emissions over the last decade in parallel with the growth of their GDP (such as the U.S., France, Germany, or Brazil), but this is not enough for a global downward trend. “Unfortunately, Spain is not part of this list, in part because in the mid-2010s there was a very strong halt in the decrease of emissions,” Canadell recalled. According to preliminary data they handle, Spain is expected to decrease its emissions in 2023, in large part because several European countries have consumed less energy due to prices and supply shortages as a result of the Ukraine war.
“Spain still has to reaffirm that it is on a downward trend in the last five or six years, although it has been disrupted by covid”
“Spain still has to reaffirm that it is on a downward trend in the last five or six years, although it has been disrupted by covid, so we still don't know exactly what is happening,” admitted Canadell.
Along with emissions from fossil fuels — representing around 90% of total carbon dioxide emissions — changes in land use (such as deforestation) also contribute to the global balance, although their weight is much smaller (10%). The report shows that these emissions have decreased slightly but remain too high, standing at 4,100 million tons of CO2 in 2023. Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are the regions that emit the most in this category.
Forests and oceans continue to absorb emissions
For the first time, the report — whose results are published in the journal Earth System Science Data — calculates how much forest fires have contributed to overall emissions: between 7,000 and 8,000 million tons of CO2 from January to October 2023, which is between 19% and 33% more than the average for 2013-2022.
The data shows that they mainly come from the extreme fire season in Canada. “This year we have seen that the largest percentage of fire emissions has come from the large boreal areas and not from the tropics,” as in other years, the expert pointed out.
At a broad level, all these emissions are mainly distributed between those produced by changes in land use (fires due to deforestation) and in natural sinks, which are forests (natural fires), as part of the carbon cycle.
Within this cycle, as we see, natural sinks — both terrestrial and oceanic — play a fundamental role in absorption: the report reflects that they purify about half of the emitted carbon dioxide. The other half remains in the atmosphere (419.3 parts per million in 2023, 51% above preindustrial levels), persisting for thousands of years. “The most remarkable thing is that we still do not see very significant changes in natural sinks, but we are afraid that in the future they will change and cease to be so efficient,” Canadell warned.
"We still do not see very significant changes in natural sinks, but we are afraid that in the future they will change and cease to be so efficient”
Also for the first time, the report calculates the influence of other types of non-natural sinks, such as reforestation-afforestation (planting trees to create new forests), carbon capture and storage, and enhanced weathering (minerals that absorb carbon). Reforestation and afforestation represent purifying 5% of emissions emitted per year, while the other two technologies, still very incipient, only represent 0.0025%.
Reasons for optimism
The document will be presented at COP28 in Dubai this Tuesday, as was the case with the previous report edition at the Climate Summit in Egypt. “One does not want to be pessimistic,” Canadell declared, listing reasons for optimism, such as the progress of renewable energies (especially solar and wind) or new technologies to remove carbon.
“But if we don't do this while closing fossil fuel energy systems, we will never solve the problem of climate change, no matter how much renewable energy we deploy, because CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere for thousands of years,” emphasized the expert.
As evidence of this, and as the data reveals, the closure of coal plants in the United States and Europe for years is pushing emissions down in both powers. “This is extraordinary, and it is important to show that things can change and can do so fairly or very quickly,” he emphasized.
A total of 120 countries have committed to the net-zero emissions goal for 2050, including Spain. What can citizens do to ensure this commitment is met? “Every citizen in the world has the responsibility to pressure governments,” Canadell concluded.
