As discussions around a possible “Blue COP31” gain momentum, a growing question is beginning to emerge within international climate policy: can climate governance continue treating the ocean as a peripheral issue while ocean conditions increasingly shape the physical reality of climate change itself?
Record ocean heat, intensifying marine heatwaves and accelerating sea-level rise defined much of the climate reality of 2024 and 2025. As these changes intensify, pressure is also growing to integrate ocean-climate dynamics more directly into international climate decision-making.
This is precisely the focus of a recent analysis published in Nature Portfolio, where I argue that accelerating ocean-climate dynamics are beginning to challenge international systems originally designed for a far more stable climate reality. The issue is no longer purely scientific. It increasingly affects the ability of international institutions to integrate ocean dynamics into climate coordination and decision-making processes.
Although the ocean is gaining scientific and political visibility, much of that momentum still struggles to translate into formal governance mechanisms
For years, the ocean has been treated within climate negotiations as an important but relatively separate issue from the core architecture of climate governance. Yet the ocean absorbs more than 90% of the excess heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions and plays a central role in regulating the global climate system.
At the same time, ocean conditions are changing rapidly. Marine heatwaves are intensifying across multiple regions, ocean heat content continues to reach record levels and sea-level rise is accelerating. These ocean changes are increasingly affecting coastal infrastructure, food systems, energy systems, insurance risks and climate planning across multiple sectors simultaneously.
COP30 marked an important moment in this evolution. Ocean-related initiatives gained unprecedented political visibility during the negotiations, including the launch of the Blue NDC Challenge and new ocean-focused implementation initiatives. Growing discussions around a possible “Blue COP31” reflect a broader recognition that ocean dynamics are becoming increasingly relevant to the future of international climate governance.
Yet a significant paradox remains. Although the ocean is gaining scientific and political visibility, much of that momentum still struggles to translate into formal governance mechanisms. The problem is no longer a lack of scientific evidence about the importance of the ocean for climate stability. The challenge is how to increasingly integrate that physical reality into international systems of coordination, implementation and decision-making built for a much more stable climate context.
This has very concrete implications. As climate impacts become increasingly interconnected, issues that once belonged primarily to the scientific domain are beginning to affect climate governance directly. How should ocean indicators be incorporated into climate decision-making? How can institutional coherence be maintained when climate risks propagate simultaneously across regions and sectors?
Today, many decisions on oceans, climate and adaptation still operate within relatively separate institutional space
COP31 could become an important opportunity to begin integrating the ocean more systematically into international climate governance. Among the priorities proposed in the Nature Portfolio analysis are the incorporation of standardized ocean indicators, stronger integration of ocean-climate dynamics into mechanisms such as the Global Stocktake, and new coordination structures capable of connecting ocean science more directly to climate implementation.
Today, many decisions on oceans, climate and adaptation still operate within relatively separate institutional spaces. For example, ocean-related issues are often addressed through dedicated ocean initiatives, while the main international climate coordination mechanisms remain focused primarily on emissions, temperature and energy. The possible coincidence of COP31 with a new extreme El Niño event could further test this institutional separation.
As momentum grows around the idea of a “Blue COP31”, integrating ocean-climate dynamics into formal governance structures may increasingly become a condition for credible climate action.
