Extensive livestock has declined in regions such as Europe, and this has ecological consequences, according to a study

Both public opinion, especially in urban areas, and scientific literature (as demonstrated in this study) tend to perceive that the trend in livestock is towards overall growth, generating serious environmental problems, linked above all to desertification due to overgrazing. This study shows that this is not the whole picture: there is an increase in livestock numbers (cattle, sheep and goats, the animals that graze), but this increase is not happening uniformly across the planet. On 40% of grazed land (which is the most widespread use of land on the planet, covering 25% of the Earth's surface), livestock densities are in fact decreasing, according to official statistics from the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations). This decline in grazing livestock is not associated with market trends, local per capita consumption or climate change, but rather with the increase in consumption (and trade) of other sources of meat (chicken and pork, usually from factory farms), the use of cereals to feed livestock (supplementing the contribution of pasture) and the economic level of the area.

The burden is increasing in less wealthy, more densely populated areas that cannot afford to feed stabled animals with cereals, and decreasing significantly (by up to 37% since 1999) in wealthy countries with declining human populations that devote an increasing share of their agricultural production to intensive stabled animal production.

The current state of knowledge, which focuses on studying the effects of overgrazing due to increased livestock numbers, can be used to prevent negative effects in areas where livestock numbers are increasing, but not to estimate the consequences of decreasing livestock numbers where this is occurring, just as the effects of agricultural intensification cannot be used to measure the effects of extensification promoted by supposedly environmentally and socially sensitive agricultural policies.

There is compelling evidence, although still lacking in detail due to the focus on the effects of overgrazing, of the possible negative effects of the decline or loss of grazing livestock on biodiversity, fire regimes, biogeochemical cycles, and the social and cultural well-being of local communities. The paper concludes with a review of this evidence and the need to refine it for specific cases (such as Europe in general and our country in particular), developing policies to combat these negative effects. Not only are the consequences of changes in agricultural landscapes due to rural abandonment and crops subsidised for their supposed environmental and social benefits proving unpredictable, but the same is true of extensive livestock farming. Both activities have positive effects on the environment and human societies that are difficult or impossible to predict and therefore promote, given current knowledge about the negative effects of overgrazing and agricultural intensification.

The authors of the study conclude, quite rightly, that a scientific paradigm shift is needed to address the challenge of promoting agricultural policies adapted to new global realities.

The study is of good quality and addresses an important issue, the impact of animal densities on extensive livestock, daring to challenge the current academic consensus on the matter. I do not believe it has any methodological limitations.

Indeed, academic studies have so far focused on analysing the negative impacts of overgrazing on pastures. Without denying this evidence, it draws our attention to some currently overlooked facts: livestock density is declining in developed countries where there was overgrazing, but livestock density is increasing in the rest of the world. 

The decrease in livestock density, where it occurs, has the positive effects that would be expected according to the prevailing scientific literature, but negative effects are emerging that have not been given sufficient attention, such as forest fires and changes in CO₂ absorption capacity. On the other hand, where livestock density is increasing, the negative effects analysed in the literature are appearing. Therefore, in contrast to simplistic and unambiguous analyses, this article explains that, in this respect too, the world is much more complex than the scientific consensus was expressing.

The article seems to conclude that different developments are taking place in opposite directions in different parts of the planet, with positive and negative effects that must be taken into account and whose outcome is not as clear as the academic consensus had previously seemed to conclude.

This research, based on a comprehensive analysis of global trends in livestock grazing between 1999 and 2023, shows that global trends in livestock farming are far from uniform. Rather, they vary according to region and socio-economic context. Anadón and Sala's study reveals that while the number of cattle and sheep is expanding rapidly in some parts of the world, it is simultaneously declining in many wealthier regions, including North America. This more detailed perspective challenges common narratives that focus primarily on overgrazing or sustained growth in global livestock farming. Furthermore, this research highlights a complex interaction of factors—such as human demographic change, economic development, and dietary changes—that together determine the use of grasslands.

It is important to note that this broader and more representative perspective also allows us to consider ecological opportunities, beyond just impacts. Reducing grazing pressure in some regions may pose challenges, such as changes in vegetation structure and ecological processes and functions, but it may also provide opportunities for restoration initiatives, biodiversity recovery and sustainable land management strategies. By highlighting both positive and negative scenarios (overgrazing), this study helps to move the debate beyond simplistic narratives and suggests a broader scenario analysis. It also contributes to understanding grasslands as dynamic socio-ecological systems in which informed policies, targeted conservation planning, and community participation can significantly influence outcomes and protect both livelihoods and ecosystems.

The grazing of large domestic herbivores on a global scale is essential for the provision of ecosystem services that are vital to our survival. This indisputable fact has led to 2026 being recognised by the FAO as the International Year of Pastures and Shepherds. Like all human activities, the way in which grazing is carried out quantitatively defines the level of provision or, in the worst cases, the shortage of these services. It is common to find conflicting scientific results, depending on which services are analysed or even on the level of detail or impartiality of the analysis.

This last aspect is addressed at the outset of this interesting study, highlighting the bias in the scientific literature of the last two decades towards analysing the negative effects of overgrazing, leaving almost untouched the possible effects of the abandonment of grazing, an increasingly common trend in many marginal areas of the world's most economically developed countries.

The study highlights that the evolution of grazing pressure in the current century, analysed at the level of the 18 major regions of the Earth considered by the FAO, is positively correlated with population pressure and negatively correlated with the consumption of pork and chicken produced under intensive conditions. Thus, in the economically poorest regions, with higher population growth and lower levels of technification, grazing pressure has increased, while the opposite has occurred in the richest regions, presumably due to the abandonment of large marginal areas. This is also consistent with the significant positive correlation noted between the evolution of grazing pressure and the proportion of cereal production devoted to human consumption (vs. that devoted to animal feed). The strong demand for other crops, especially soybeans, by intensive monogastric livestock farming and the excess of animal protein in the diet of people in developed countries, although not noted in the study, only serve to deepen these obvious imbalances.

Spain falls within the FAO region known as Southern Europe, which, according to the study, ranks third in terms of the greatest decline in grazing pressure since the beginning of the century. The study provides recent references demonstrating the relationship between the decline in grazing and the increase in the frequency of destructive fires, something that is evident in many studies on a more detailed scale in our Mediterranean ecosystems and which, unfortunately, we suffered painfully in years such as 2025.

The study highlights in a simple way and on a global scale aspects of great relevance to the importance of achieving a balance between grazing pressure and pasture productivity, territories that occupy a quarter of the planet's land surface. The imbalance towards the abandonment of grazing, which is particularly noticeable in the European Union (the four FAO regions with the highest declines in grazing pressure are those covering the EU), requires political measures to halt and even reverse this trend. In the case of the European Union, the Common Agricultural Policy, currently under debate for a new reform that will come into force in 2028, should make a firm commitment to maintaining and restoring the valuable pastoral areas of its member states.