Hot days could last four hours longer by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario
Extreme heat is intensifying due to climate change – heat whose hourly fluctuations are not captured by traditional daily temperature indicators. Research published in Nature Climate Change has analysed global hourly data from 1981 to 2023, alongside climate projections through to the end of the 21st century. More than 80 per cent of the world’s land surface showed an increase in heat. Under a high-emissions scenario, the authors predict that, for the period 2070–2099, each hot day could include more than four hours of additional high temperatures compared with current levels (2001–2023). They also predict that non-hot days could see a further three hours of high temperatures, which would likely go undetected by daily measurements. Low- and middle-income countries are the hardest hit, bearing more than three-quarters of current and future heat exposure.